5
On the cusp of invading Greece with his army, the Persian Emperor Xerxes was confronted by his chief counsel, Artabanus, who cautioned against unforeseen threats and logistical difficulties in his campaign. However, Xerxes shunned any operational hand-wringing, according to historian John Lewis Gaddis’ book On Grand Strategy, arguing that “big things are won by big dangers”.
More than 2,000 years after Xerxes’ ill-fated campaign, which helped to unify once-disparate Greek city states into a major political force in the Mediterranean region, another leader of a superpower is imposing his will on the rest of the world without much forethought.
Almost two months since he declared “Liberation Day” and imposed “reciprocal” tariffs on almost all US trade partners, the track record of US President Donald Trump’s trade war is, at best, mixed. Aside from negotiating a 90-day pause in an escalating trade war with China and striking a partial deal with the United Kingdom, the US leader has struggled to show any kind of decisive success.
Ongoing trade negotiations with other major trading nations, most notably the European Union, are also in limbo, while neighbouring Mexico and Canada are up in arms. Domestic institutions are also stepping in. The federal trade court recently ruled that Trump overstepped his authority on the tariffs, only for an appeal court to temporarily halt the ruling a day later.
There could be a strategic logic that drives Trump’s seemingly inchoate trade policy and incoherent tactics. The United States is a declining superpower largely because of its hollowed-out manufacturing base and shrinking contribution to global trade.
Liberal globalisation has enriched the US financial sector and Big Tech companies, but it has left much of the country in a much weaker position vis-a-vis other major economic powers, especially China. Though disruptive, Trump’s policies are an attempt at reviving the foundations of the US economy before it slides into permanent decline.
