MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Cleveland Guardians vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, April 19

Thank goodness for live betting. Despite losing the initial Marlins-Phillies under by a run, there was a tempting opportunity to recoup most of that on the live under 11.5 in the top of the seventh. Nothing wrong with salvaging a night, and bettors should always be monitoring ongoing lines as the games are playing out.

Speaking of things that are live, what a perfect segue into today’s over/under bet. That comes in the sandwich affair of this three-game interleague series between the Cleveland Guardians and Pittsburgh Pirates, and will see Ben Lively take on Paul Skenes.

At this point, everyone already knows about the Pirates’ generational ace: Rookie of the Year. All-Star Game starting pitcher. Top three in Cy Young voting. All in just his first year.

To the surprise of no one, Skenes is maintaining the dominance we saw from his freshman showing a season ago, entering this fifth start of the campaign with a 2.96 ERA and microscopic 0.74 WHIP. In addition, he’s strung together a 26-to-3 K/BB ratio in 24 1/3 innings while suppressing hitters to a video-game-like .169/.204/.225 slash line.

Skenes will receive an uneasy test this afternoon in the form of the Guardians, who are scoring 4.1 runs per game to rank around the middle of the pack. There are definitely some intriguing bats in the lineup outside of José Ramírez, such as Kyle Manzardo, Steven Kwan, Nolan Jones and “Big Christmas” Jhonkensy Noel, but this is Paul-freaking-Skenes we’re talking about. And in his kingdom of pitcher-friendly PNC Park. Trust him to assemble another quality outing in this one.

Can we share the same feelings for Lively, though? The 33-year-old right-hander is coming off a very illuminating 13-10 season in which he made 29 starts — this after only returning to the major leagues the year prior for the first time since before the COVID season. He was previously pitching in Korea to resuscitate his baseball career.

Lively did show some potential in his first rodeo in the majors in 2017, even beating the likes of Jacob deGrom and (prime) Madison Bumgarner that season en route to finishing with a respectable 4.26 ERA. So maybe it’s not so surprising he’s sticking around with the Tribe this time around as a fairly steady starter.

His beginning to the current season isn’t going so hot, sitting at 0-2 through four starts with a 4.87 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. However, there is reason to believe Lively can improve upon those numbers sooner than later.

Being saddled with a .309 batting average on balls put in play against him is a pretty unlucky circumstance to deal with, and that number will likely be coming down considerably in the coming assignments. In turn, that will deflate his .270 batting average against.

It’s also worth noting that Lively is drawing soft contact at a rate of 17.2%, which is his best such mark since returning to the States to play baseball.

The quality of opponent — or perhaps lack thereof — may be of assistance for Lively as well. The Pirates undoubtedly have some notable talent within their batting order, but overall they rank second from the bottom in the National League with 3.5 runs per game. Additionally, their .202/.288/.317 hitting line ranks among the worst in all of baseball.

Skenes figures to lead the way, and hopefully Lively will be game enough to hang around.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-118, DraftKings)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 13-11-1, -0.63 unit
Over/Unders: 11-8-1
Props: 2-2
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Results: Marlins-Phillies Under 8 (loss), Marlins-Phillies Live Under 11.5 (win)

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated.

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