Open Source Report for Monday, May 19, 2025 – The Cipher Brief

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Monday, May 19, 2025

Trump to speak on Monday with Putin and Zelensky about stopping Russia’s war in Ukraine

Russia Unleashes One of Its Largest Drone Barrages of the Ukraine War

Britain and E.U. Strike Landmark Brexit Reset Deal

Israel expands ground operations to control Gaza as aid trucks prepare to enter

China launches satellites to start building the world’s first supercomputer in orbit

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Trump’s Gulf Tour: The Money Deals, the Diplomacy and What Comes Next.Cipher Brief experts offered mixed assessments of President Donald Trump’s four-day Gulf tour, filled with ambitious deals and diplomatic shifts. John McLaughlin, former Acting Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, called the lifting of Syria sanctions a bold but risky move, citing the potential benefits of regional stabilization but warning about the uncertainty of Syria’s new leader and Iranian influence. Ambassador Dennis Ross, former U.S. Middle East coordinator, emphasized the trip’s transactional nature, describing it as focused on economic partnerships rather than regional security, and noted a growing distance between Trump and Israel. Hassan Abbas, professor at National Defense University, saw the trip as a strategic attempt to reframe U.S.-Gulf relations and elevate Syria’s recovery as a regional pivot. Former U.S. Ambassador to Oman Gary Grappo critiqued inflated deal figures and identified Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar as political winners, with Israel as the diplomatic loser. Paula Doyle, former CIA Associate Director for Operations, supported the conditional 120-day Syria sanctions policy, viewing it as a measured strategy to foster accountability and regional reconstruction. The Cipher Brief

Opinion: What Comes After Istanbul Will Define Ukraine. Rob Dannenberg, former Central Intelligence Agency chief for the Counterterrorism Center, Central Eurasia Division, and Information Operations Center, argues that Friday’s Istanbul talks between Ukraine and Russia were a “peace theater” staged by Russian President Vladimir Putin to appear conciliatory without making any real concessions. Dannenberg views Putin’s absence as a sign of weakness, not strength, and warns that any compromise would only allow Russia to regroup and launch future aggression. He emphasizes that Ukraine, having resisted and outperformed Russia militarily and technologically, is negotiating from a position of strength. Dannenberg praises Ukraine’s resolve, innovation, and unity, calling its military possibly the most capable in Europe, and sees the war as existential for Ukrainians. He insists the U.S. must reinforce this Ukrainian determination by increasing sanctions on Russia and providing more military aid. For Dannenberg, any peace agreement perceived as a victory by Putin would only guarantee further violence and subjugation. The Cipher Brief 

Opinion: Vladimir Putin Has Reasons to be Nervous. David Kirichenko, an Associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, argues that the Kremlin is increasingly vulnerable to Ukraine’s deep-penetration intelligence operations despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s public bravado. Kirichenko highlights how Ukraine’s security services have successfully assassinated high-ranking Russian generals and war criminals, even deep inside Russian territory. He contends that these strikes—often dismissed by Western officials as risky escalations—have in fact shattered the illusion of untouchability surrounding Russia’s leadership. Ukrainian officials, he notes, openly liken their tactics to Israel’s Mossad and view their campaign as a necessary psychological and strategic effort to destabilize Russia’s political and military infrastructure. Kirichenko criticizes the U.S. for past hesitations rooted in fear of provoking Russia, arguing that Ukraine has demonstrated those red lines are more myth than reality. The Cipher Brief 

Opinion: Don’t Underestimate the New Road to Damascus. Paula Doyle, former Associate Deputy Director for Operations at the Central Intelligence Agency, cautiously supports the Trump administration’s new 120-day conditional sanctions-lifting policy toward Syria. While acknowledging concerns over Syria’s new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa—a former al-Qaeda affiliate—Doyle argues that the strategy provides a structured mechanism for U.S. oversight. She notes the policy aligns closely with Turkish priorities, including the protection of minorities, containment of ISIS elements, dismantling of PKK [the Kurdistan Workers’ Party] infrastructure, and elimination of hidden chemical weapons stockpiles. Doyle highlights the potential for rapid postwar reconstruction, especially by Turkish firms, and sees the policy as a means to enable Syrian refugees to return. More broadly, she believes the withdrawal of Russian and Iranian forces from Syria in late 2024 opens the door for U.S. strategic messaging across the Middle East and Black Sea region. For Doyle, the initiative could symbolically mark the failure of the Russian Iranian axis and a resurgence of U.S. leadership. The Cipher Brief

Opinion: Afghanistan’s Tale of Two Extremist Movements. Matin Bek, a former senior Afghan official and current fellow at New America’s Future Security Program, draws a sharp contrast between Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Taliban, despite their shared jihadist roots. Bek argues that HTS, under Ahmed al-Sharaa, is showing pragmatic signs of reform—engaging with Kurdish forces, including women in governance, and beginning constitutional efforts—while the Taliban is regressing into a rigid, extremist regime. He warns that the Taliban has betrayed its promises from the 2019–2020 Doha peace talks, stripping Afghan women of all rights and laying the foundation for a future generation of jihadis through widespread madrasa indoctrination. Bek sees HTS’s actions as an attempt to legitimize governance and reduce regional tension, earning cautious support from Gulf states, while the Taliban remains isolated and dangerous. He urges policymakers to resist calls for Taliban normalization unless they dismantle their oppressive and terrorist infrastructure. In his view, the Taliban poses a growing regional and global threat. The Cipher Brief 

THE AMERICAS

CIA to name veteran Middle East case officer as head of covert operations. The Central Intelligence Agency is set to appoint a veteran clandestine officer currently serving as a station chief in the Middle East as its new Deputy Director of Operations (DDO), one of the agency’s most powerful roles. The Financial Times is withholding the nominee’s name due to his undercover status, but sources describe him as highly respected among field officers. The DDO oversees global covert operations and spy recruitment, including in adversarial countries like China and Russia. The role is gaining influence as CIA Director John Ratcliffe shifts focus more heavily on human intelligence gathering. The appointment follows the withdrawal of Ralph Goff, a retired officer initially tapped for the job; some sources cited objections to Goff’s pro-Ukraine stance, though others say his removal was unrelated. The change comes amid broader leadership shakeups under President Donald Trump. However, insiders insist this move is about ensuring trusted leadership for sensitive global operations rather than part of recent political purges. Financial Times

Mike Waltz Fell into an Age-Old Trap in Political History.  Former Congressman Mike Waltz’s abrupt firing as President Trump’s national security adviser highlights a long-standing pattern in U.S. political history: former elected officials often struggle to adapt to subordinate executive roles. While officially ousted over policy disagreements on Iran, insiders suggest Waltz’s downfall stemmed more from his failure to accept the limits of staff power—acting more like a policymaker than an adviser. This dynamic has played out repeatedly since the Civil War, with prominent figures such as William Seward, Salmon Chase, Donald Rumsfeld, and David Stockman all grappling with the loss of autonomy after transitioning from independent political roles to the hierarchical structure of presidential administrations. As the executive branch has centralized power in the West Wing, the expectation for loyalty and discretion has intensified, making it difficult for strong-willed former lawmakers to conform. Waltz’s reassignment to UN ambassador reflects a familiar political demotion for those unable—or unwilling—to subordinate personal influence to the president’s agenda.  Politico

Mexican Navy training vessel collides with Brooklyn Bridge, killing two. A Mexican navy tall ship, the ARM Cuauhtémoc, crashed into New York’s Brooklyn Bridge on Saturday evening, snapping its masts and claiming the lives of two crew members. Two others were critically injured, and 22 were wounded in total, according to the Mexican navy. Despite the collision, the bridge sustained no structural damage. The training vessel, carrying 277 people including 147 cadets, was departing New York en route to Iceland as part of a global goodwill tour when it appeared to suffer a mechanical failure. The ship drifted backward, striking the bridge and shearing off its masts as stunned bystanders watched and fled from nearby Brooklyn Bridge Park. The Cuauhtémoc had recently stopped at South Street Seaport and was scheduled to visit 22 ports in 15 countries. U.S. authorities, including the National Transportation Safety Board, are investigating the incident. Wall Street Journal New York Times Associated Press CNN   

Comey’s ‘86 47’ Post Is Latest Social-Media Misadventure for Ex-FBI Boss. Former FBI Director James Comey sparked controversy with a now-deleted Instagram post showing seashells arranged in the numbers “86 47,” which critics interpreted as a veiled threat to “get rid of” President Trump. Though Comey claimed the post was innocuous, he was questioned by the Secret Service and faced Republican calls for prosecution. Trump accused Comey of intent, while legal experts like John Fishwick, former U.S. attorney for Virginia, noted that law enforcement figures should know the risks of provocative posts. The incident comes as Comey promotes a new novel involving politically motivated violence, intensifying scrutiny of his public behavior. Despite his past as a prosecutor and his stated opposition to violence, Comey’s history with Trump—including his 2017 firing during the Russia probe—continues to fuel tensions. The Justice Department declined to comment on whether charges might be considered, and many experts view a criminal case as unlikely. Wall Street Journal

How do countries rank by military spending? According to The Economist’s 2025 military spending analysis, based on data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the United States remains the top global defense spender, with a budget larger than the next nine countries combined. However, the gap narrows when adjusted for military purchasing-power parity (PPP), which accounts for differences in local wages and costs. China and Russia follow closely, with their combined PPP-adjusted budgets nearly equaling that of the U.S. India also ranks among the top spenders. Ukraine leads the world in defense spending as a share of GDP, allocating 34.5%, with $65 billion in direct spending and $199 billion at military PPP, plus $45.3 billion in military aid. NATO allies (excluding the U.S.) have increased defense spending by 24% over two years, and 18 of 32 members now meet the 2% of GDP target. Despite these increases, the U.S. and its allies now represent a slightly smaller share of global military spending than a decade ago. Defense budgets totaled $2.7 trillion in 2024—up by 9.4% from 2023, the biggest jump since at least 1988. The Economist

Made in the USA: foreign defense companies’ eye bigger slice of the American pie. Despite recent trade turbulence under the Trump administration, several foreign defense firms are expanding operations in the U.S., seeking to deepen their stake in the American market. Sweden’s Saab has grown its footprint with new manufacturing sites in Rhode Island and Michigan, emphasizing long-term investment in advanced technologies. Lufthansa Technik, the German aviation firm, is cautiously entering U.S. defense work in Tulsa, Oklahoma, focusing on component and engine maintenance while navigating strict acquisition regulations. CBC Global Ammunition of Brazil announced a $300 million investment to build its first U.S. plant in Oklahoma, aiming to produce all ammunition components domestically. Dak Hardwick, VP at the Aerospace Industries Association, warned that unpredictable tariffs could complicate supply chains, impacting exports and domestic operations. While tariffs aim to boost domestic production, Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt noted they’ve also strained global partnerships critical to the state’s $44 billion aerospace sector. Still, officials remain hopeful about re-shoring and supply chain resilience. Defense One

Vance, Rubio meet with first American pope amid efforts to reset relations with Vatican. U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with newly elected Pope Leo XIV on Monday to reset U.S.-Vatican relations by focusing on shared goals like global peace, while downplaying tensions over immigration. Leo has stressed ending conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, and Myanmar, aligning with Trump’s efforts to present himself as a peacemaker. However, Leo’s past advocacy for migrants and criticism of Trump-era immigration policies, including posts from a now-defunct account believed to be his, suggest that deep ideological divides remain. While Vance and Rubio praised Trump’s peace record and highlighted their Catholic faith, Vatican officials and observers note Leo’s life work promoting dignity and social justice may contrast sharply with Trump’s nationalist agenda. Though Leo has not directly criticized Trump, his background and message signal a more inclusive vision. Despite efforts at diplomacy, U.S. officials privately admit the rift over migration policy is likely unbridgeable. Washington Post NBC News Reuters 

FBI identifies suspect in Palm Springs fertility clinic bombing. The FBI has identified 25-year-old Guy Edward Bartkus as the suspect in a deadly bombing outside a Palm Springs fertility clinic, labeling it an intentional act of terrorism driven by “nihilistic ideations.” The blast, which occurred Saturday near the American Reproductive Center, killed one person and injured at least four others, but did not damage stored embryos. Bartkus is believed to have died in the explosion, which he attempted to livestream, and a possible manifesto is under investigation. Authorities say there is no ongoing threat and are treating the case as the largest bombing crime scene in Southern California history.  Reuters Associated Press BBC The Guardian

Could Brazilian leader Lula’s trip to Beijing herald greater Chinese defense role in region? Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s recent visit to China has raised the prospect of future defense and security cooperation between the two countries, potentially challenging U.S. strategic interests in Latin America. A key moment was Lula’s meeting with Chen Defang, head of Chinese defense giant Norinco, to discuss a possible investment in Brazil’s financially struggling aerospace and defense firm Avibras. Though no formal agreements were made, Brazilian officials expressed openness to Chinese investment, including in public security technologies like facial recognition. Norinco had previously offered to acquire a 49% stake in Avibras. Analysts note that such a deal would inject vital funds into Avibras and could facilitate Chinese arms exports to Latin America, a region historically reliant on American and European weapons. However, the potential partnership has already triggered U.S. concern. Washington warned it may impose an embargo on U.S. defense products if the deal proceeds. South China Morning Post 

Colombia seeks to join China-based development bank as Latin America drifts away from Washington. Colombia has applied to join the China-led New Development Bank, signaling a shift in Latin America’s geopolitical alignments amid U.S. foreign aid cuts and trade tensions under the Trump administration. President Gustavo Petro met with former Brazilian President and bank head Dilma Rousseff in Shanghai and committed to purchasing $512 million in shares. He hopes the bank will fund a major canal or railway connecting Colombia’s Atlantic and Pacific coasts, enhancing trade with Asia. The New Development Bank, founded by BRICS nations, has financed over $40 billion in infrastructure projects. Colombia’s move, following Uruguay’s earlier bid, marks a notable departure from its traditional U.S. alliance. The U.S. has voiced strong opposition to China-linked projects in the region, but Petro, a former guerrilla, insists Bogotá will remain neutral and make independent decisions, engaging both Washington and Beijing equally. Associated Press Bloomberg 

France set to build supermax prison in South American jungle. France will build a high-security prison in the South American jungle of French Guiana to house its most dangerous criminals, including drug traffickers and convicted Islamist radicals, Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin has announced. Located in Saint-Laurent-du-Maroni, the 60-inmate facility will open in 2028, and is set to feature an extremely strict regime aimed at isolating top figures in organized crime and cutting off their contact with criminal networks. Darmanin described the prison as a key element in his broader anti-drug strategy, targeting trafficking from Guiana, through mainland France, and down to consumers. The region, a key departure point for drug mules heading to Paris, has the highest crime rate of any French territory, with a homicide rate nearly 14 times the national average. South China Morning Post Economic Times The Telegraph 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russia Unleashes One of Its Largest Drone Barrages of the Ukraine War. Russia launched one of its largest drone assaults of the war on Sunday, sending 273 drones and decoys across Ukraine, primarily targeting Kyiv. A 28-year-old woman was killed, and several others, including a child, were injured. The attack came just before President Donald Trump’s planned talks with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday. The attack followed failed peace talks in Istanbul on Friday, which produced only a prisoner swap agreement. New York Times Reuters

Trump says he will speak on Monday with Putin and Zelensky about stopping Russia’s war in Ukraine. President Donald Trump announced Saturday he will hold phone calls on Monday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and NATO leaders to push for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war. In a Truth Social post, Trump said the call with Putin will address “stopping the bloodbath” that is killing over 5,000 soldiers weekly, as well as trade issues. He added, “Hopefully it will be a productive day, a ceasefire will take place, and this very violent war… will end.” Trump emphasized that he believes no peace deal can succeed without his direct involvement. Despite U.S.-led pressure for a ceasefire and Friday’s low-level talks in Istanbul resulting only in a prisoner swap, Trump suggested he and Putin must meet in person for real progress. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed Trump’s push for an immediate ceasefire in calls with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Wall Street Journal Washington Post CNN Financial Times Axios

Four European leaders aim to speak with Trump before his call with Putin, Merz says. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Sunday that he and the leaders of France, Britain, and Poland plan to speak with U.S. President Donald Trump before Trump’s scheduled call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday. Merz discussed the matter with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio during the Vatican’s inaugural mass for Pope Leo XIV and also met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The goal is to align positions ahead of Trump’s conversation with Putin. Reuters

Zelensky meets Pope Leo XIV, Vance at the Vatican on Sunday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attended the inaugural Mass of Pope Leo XIV at the Vatican on Sunday, where the new pontiff said that “martyred Ukraine awaits negotiations for a just and lasting peace.” After the service, Zelensky met privately with the pope, thanking him for the Vatican’s offer to host Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The pope’s strong moral stance, including a public denunciation of Russia’s invasion while still a bishop, has positioned him as a potentially influential mediator. Zelensky also met with U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Rome, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and other European leaders coordinated ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s planned call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Amid escalating Russian drone attacks and failed ceasefire talks in Istanbul, Zelensky emphasized the Holy See’s potentially important role in ending the war “because of its voice and authority.”  Following the collapse of Friday’s Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul—marked by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to attend—Pope Leo XIV has offered the Vatican as a neutral venue for renewed negotiations.  New York Times Kyiv Independent Reuters Associated Press Politico EU

Trump’s Ukraine Policy Pressured ‘the Victim,’ Former Ambassador Says. In a sharply worded opinion essay published Friday in the Detroit Free Press, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget A. Brink said she resigned her post in April due to President Donald Trump’s Ukraine policy, which she said, “pressured the victim rather than the aggressor.” Brink, a career diplomat who served under both Republican and Democratic presidents, said she could no longer in good faith carry out a policy she believed amounted to appeasement of Russia. She condemned the “pure evil” of the Russian invasion, citing mass civilian deaths, abductions, and war crimes, and stressed that U.S. leadership is essential to defending democracy and global security. Drawing on her Michigan roots and family’s World War II service, Brink argued that America must not turn away from its values or allies. Her essay stands as a rare, direct rebuke of Trump’s foreign policy from a recently serving ambassador, delivered publicly in her home state. In an interview with CBS’ Face the Nation program on Sunday, she elaborated, saying, “I fully agree that the war needs to end, but I believe that peace at any price is not peace at all. It’s appeasement and, as we know from history, appeasement only leads to more war.” New York Times Detroit Free Press Reuters Politico EU Face the Nation

Russia takes tough stance in Istanbul talks, threatens Ukraine with long war. At the first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in three years, held in Istanbul on Friday, Russia took a hardline stance and issued veiled threats of a protracted war. Led by Vladimir Medinsky, the Russian delegation demanded that Ukraine cede control of territories Russia only partially occupies, a nonstarter for Kyiv. Medinsky reportedly warned Ukrainians that Russia was ready to “wage war forever” if its conditions weren’t met, invoking historical conflicts to underline Moscow’s resolve. Although the two sides agreed on a prisoner swap, no progress was made on a ceasefire. Ukraine, led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, rejected territorial concessions and emphasized Russia’s responsibility for continuing the war. Despite U.S. and European efforts to push for a ceasefire, Russian rhetoric and President Donald Trump’s decision to stay away, while expressing intent to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, further undercut the negotiations. Russia’s demands signal continued entrenchment, and a strategy aimed at attrition, not compromise. Washington Post Reuters

‘Non-starter’ Ukraine talks renew call for US sanctions bill. After the brief and unproductive Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks in Istanbul on Friday, U.S. senators renewed bipartisan calls for passing stalled sanctions legislation targeting Russia. The talks, the first direct engagement in over three years, ended quickly with Russia proposing conditions Ukraine deemed “non-starters.” Senators Richard Blumenthal and Lindsey Graham, co-authors of an April 1 bill imposing measures like a 500% tariff on imports from nations buying Russian energy, urged immediate action. The Senate bill has 73 co-sponsors, but no vote has been scheduled. Graham criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin’s absence from the talks, saying it’s time to stop tolerating Russia’s delay tactics. Reuters Reuters 

EU readies new sanctions against Russia as Ukraine calls for a harder line on the Kremlin. After the Friday ceasefire talks in Istanbul ended without progress, Ukraine and European leaders swiftly condemned Russia’s demands and pushed for more decisive action. Ukrainian officials described the Kremlin’s proposals—including calls for Ukrainian territorial withdrawal—as “non-starters” and “detached from reality.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky immediately contacted U.S. President Donald Trump and European leaders, urging “tough sanctions” if Russian President Vladimir Putin continues rejecting a complete, unconditional ceasefire. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called Russia’s stance “clearly unacceptable,” while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that a new European Union sanctions package is in the works. Despite a limited agreement on a prisoner exchange, Kyiv viewed the talks as further evidence that Moscow is using diplomacy to stall while continuing its military aggression. Ukrainian and European leaders are now closely coordinating to maintain pressure on Russia and deny Putin the strategic gains he seeks through prolonged war and coercive negotiations. Reuters Reuters Reuters

Merz tries to quell Meloni-Macron spat over Ukraine. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz attempted to ease tensions between French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni after a diplomatic spat erupted over Meloni’s exclusion from a high-level European meeting on Ukraine in Albania on Friday. Macron accused Meloni of spreading “false information” about being left out due to her opposition to troop deployments, which he denied were discussed. Meloni, a staunch supporter of Ukraine, argued Italy wasn’t included because it refuses to join a postwar “coalition of the willing.” Merz met with Meloni in Rome on Saturday night, affirming Italy’s essential role in peace efforts and stressing European Union unity. The incident, which sparked political backlash in Italy, reflects longstanding friction between Macron and Meloni. Despite past tensions with German leadership, Merz publicly supported Meloni, aiming to strengthen ties. Meloni called for unity and a “just peace” for Ukraine, framing the Istanbul talks as only “a timid first step.’’ Financial Times

Russian Troops Are War-Weary but Want to Conquer More of Ukraine. Despite growing exhaustion, many Russian soldiers reject a cease-fire that freezes the war along current lines, fearing it would render their sacrifices meaningless. In interviews with The New York Times, frontline troops expressed frustration with both the Kremlin and peace proposals backed by the U.S. and Ukraine. Soldiers demanded complete control of the four partially occupied Ukrainian regions annexed by Russia early in the war. Their sentiments reflect widespread nationalist expectations that make any compromise politically risky for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s tentative acceptance of a cease-fire without security guarantees is viewed in Kyiv and the West as a major concession, but one that may not satisfy either side. Years of war propaganda have convinced many Russians they are engaged in an existential fight against the West, and Putin may struggle to sell an inconclusive outcome as victory. The Kremlin now faces not only battlefield challenges but the risk of postwar disillusionment among hardened, disaffected veterans. New York Times

Russia and Ukraine Agree to Prisoner Swap in First Direct Talks in Years. At Friday’s talks in Istanbul, Russia and Ukraine agreed to conduct a major prisoner exchange, with each committing to release 1,000 prisoners of war. Russian delegation head Vladimir Medinsky confirmed the deal, calling it one of the meeting’s concrete outcomes and a “massive” exchange. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who led Kyiv’s delegation, also acknowledged the agreement. If completed, it would be the largest swap of the war. While broader peace talks remain stalled, the prisoner exchange was seen as a humanitarian step forward amidst ongoing hostilities. New York Times Reuters

Ukraine Is Making More Weapons Than Ever—but Still Can’t Fight Russia Alone. Ukraine has dramatically expanded its domestic arms production since Russia’s 2022 invasion, developing weapons like the Bohdana howitzer, now manufactured at over 20 units per month. More than 40% of front-line weapons are Ukrainian made, including nearly all drones and electronic warfare tools. However, despite this growth—from $1 billion in 2022 to $35 billion in capacity—Ukraine still relies heavily on Western aid, particularly for air defense and ammunition. Financial constraints limit government procurement, leaving factories underutilized. Western allies, like Denmark, are now funding direct purchases from Ukrainian arms producers to help fill the gap. Yet projects like domestic 155mm NATO-standard ammunition remain stalled due to lack of funding. Defense officials emphasize Ukraine’s long-term goal to be self-reliant militarily and economically through its growing arms industry. Still, as the war intensifies, Ukraine cannot sustain the fight or ensure sovereignty without continued foreign support. Wall Street Journal

Canada PM Carney reaffirms support for Ukraine in first meeting with Zelensky. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney held his first in-person meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Rome, Italy, on Saturday. The meeting took place ahead of the inaugural mass for newly elected Pope Leo at the Vatican. Carney reaffirmed Canada’s “steadfast and unwavering” support for Ukraine. He also met with other world leaders in preparation for the upcoming G7 summit in Canada this June. Reuters

Report: Russia is targeting Ukrainian hotels to discourage journalists. A report by Reporters Without Borders and Ukrainian watchdog Truth Hounds reveals that Russia has targeted at least 25 hotels near Ukraine’s front lines since 2022, in what appears to be a deliberate effort to intimidate journalists and stifle war coverage. While Russia claims military personnel or foreign fighters stay in these hotels, investigators found no evidence linking the attacks to military activity. Instead, the hotels were known to house journalists. The precision of missile strikes indicates they were intentionally targeted. At least 24 journalists have been injured, and one killed in these attacks. As a result, many media outlets have reduced front-line reporting, and journalists now avoid hotels, opting for riskier alternatives like rented apartments or long daily commutes. The campaign has severely hampered independent reporting from the front, with 64% of journalists saying their work has become significantly more difficult due to the attacks. Washington Post

Ukraine Situation Report: Third F-16 Viper Lost. Ukraine lost its third F-16 Viper, but the pilot survived after ejecting during a nighttime mission on Friday. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, the pilot had already downed three air targets and was engaging a fourth when an onboard emergency forced him to crash the jet away from a populated area. The cause is under investigation. Ukraine has received promises of 85 F-16s from Western allies, though some are for training or spare parts rather than combat deployment. The War Zone

Russian attack kills 9, Ukraine says, just hours after peace talks. Just hours after Russia and Ukraine held their first direct talks in over three years in Istanbul on Friday, a Russian Lancet drone strike hit a civilian minibus in Bilopillia, Sumy region, killing nine people, including a family and several elderly women. The attack was condemned as a deliberate assault on civilians. New York Times Washington Post Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, May 16-Sunday, May 18. SUNDAY– Russian forces launched the largest drone strike of the war overnight on Sunday, deploying 273 drones despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s call to halt long-range strikes. At the same time, the Kremlin released pre-recorded footage of Vladimir Putin touting Russia’s military capabilities and resolve ahead of Monday’s phone call with Trump, part of a broader effort to project strength. Domestic support for a prolonged war remains strong, as surveys reveal many Russians oppose any settlement short of Putin’s original war aims. SATURDAY–Russian Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev issued veiled threats that failed peace talks could lead to a “more terrible stage of war,” potentially involving new weapons. Additionally, the Kremlin continues to question the legitimacy of Ukraine’s government, setting rhetorical conditions to abandon future peace agreements and advocating regime change in Kyiv. FRIDAY–Russian Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky emphasized at peace talks with Ukraine on Friday in Istanbul that Russia is prepared to continue the war for years, rejecting the idea of a ceasefire before negotiations. At the talks, the Russian delegation reiterated demands for Ukraine to withdraw from all four illegally annexed oblasts and reportedly escalated threats to seize Kharkiv and Sumy, marking a formal expansion of territorial ambitions. The Kremlin has long informally claimed additional Ukrainian territory, and recent rhetoric suggests Russia may attempt to codify these claims in future negotiations, especially involving areas like Kharkiv, Sumy, and the broader “Novorossiya” concept. Analysts at ISW assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin will only negotiate seriously if battlefield or economic pressure forces him to abandon his attritional war strategy. Putin approved new top-level military appointments on Thursday, including naming General Andrei Mordvichev as Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces, signaling endorsement of his grinding attritional tactics. Russian reinforcements from Kursk and Zaporizhia suggest that the command may prioritize renewed efforts to seize Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Alternatively, Russia may focus on advancing toward Kostyantynivka, leveraging gains southwest of Toretsk and seeking to push along key highways to expand control. Due to limited manpower and resources, Russia is unlikely to sustain simultaneous offensives toward both Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka. Russia’s difficulty in breaking through defensive lines near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk may force a pause before attempting larger operations against fortified urban areas.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced near Lyman. Russian forces advanced near Borova, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Novopavlivka, and in the Zaporizhia direction. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War Saturday-Institute for the Study of War Friday-Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE

Russia detained oil tanker in Baltic Sea, reports Estonia. Russia detained the Greek-owned, Liberia-flagged oil tanker Green Admire on Sunday after it departed Estonia’s Sillamae port and passed through Russian territorial waters via an established navigation channel. Estonia’s Foreign Ministry linked the detention to its crackdown on Russia’s “shadow fleet,” which is used to circumvent Western oil sanctions. The tanker, operated by Athens-based Aegean Ship Management and insured by Norway’s Skuld, was carrying Estonian shale oil to Rotterdam and was nearly fully loaded. A Greek official said the vessel entered Russian waters to avoid shallows and was intercepted for a fine. Estonia has alerted NATO, though the alliance has not yet commented. Estonia now plans to reroute ships through its own waters. The incident comes amid heightened tensions in the Baltic Sea, following recent infrastructure disruptions and Estonia’s efforts to block sanctioned Russian oil shipments. Greece is monitoring the situation but has not been asked to intervene. Reuters Al Jazeera Kyiv Independent 

Estonian PM vows to keep up checks on Russia’s ‘shadow fleet.’ Estonia will continue to inspect suspected Russian “shadow fleet” oil tankers despite rising tensions, Prime Minister Kristen Michal told Reuters on Sunday. The pledge follows an incident in which Russia deployed a Su-35 fighter jet that briefly breached NATO airspace as Estonia tried to redirect a sanctioned tanker. These vessels, often lacking clear ownership and Western insurance, carry much of Moscow’s oil to buyers like China and India. Michal said Estonia and neighboring countries like Finland will remain vigilant and question any suspicious activity. Tallinn previously detained the tanker Kiwala in April. Michal criticized Russia’s continued access to global oil markets during its war in Ukraine, calling for tighter enforcement of sanctions. He emphasized Estonia’s commitment to defense, allocating 5% of GDP, and urged other NATO members to follow suit. Reuters