What a Waste of a Winsday
The latest Rockies-Rays under bet was washed away into postponement last night despite zero rain in Kansas City for approximately two hours from the time of what was supposed to be first pitch. We could’ve maybe gotten seven innings or so in before any downpour, but then again, why potentially revisit the controversy of that Giants-Yankees under from a few weeks ago? Still thankful for that “no action” ruling.
Now we’re on to Thursday, and it involves a trip to Fenway Park, where the Seattle Mariners and Boston Red Sox conclude their three-game set after the first two contests saw both teams split high-scoring matchups. Will the series finale fall in line with those previous results?
Au contraire. Not with a stellar pitching matchup on tap.
For the home team, Garrett Crochet gets the ball for his sixth start in the Red Sox rotation. Much was made about Boston’s acquisition of the 6-foot-6 left-hander during the offseason—requiring a pretty stout exchange of players going to the other side in return for his services—and Crochet has unquestionably exceeded the high expectations early on.
Entering today’s assignment, he carries a splendid 1.13 ERA and 0.91 WHIP through 32 innings while shackling batters to an absolutely emasculating .168/.236/.204 slash line. No, that is not a typo—Crochet’s opposing slugging percentage is more than 30 points lower than the on-base percentage.
Of the 113 at-bats logged against Crochet, only two ensued with a hit going for extra bases (one home run and one double). The Ks have been aplenty as usual, too, as the 25-year-old’s strikeout rate currently sits at 9.8 K/9.
A claim could be made that Crochet is the best left-handed pitcher in the game today, and in his next turn, he’ll be seeing an offense that has ranked as one of the worst versus southpaws since last year.
As has been highlighted a handful of times already in this column, Seattle finished dead last in 2024 with a collective .213 average opposite left-handers. In addition, they punched out frequently, striking out 453 times in 1,564 ABs with a lefty on the mound.
This season, these struggles haven’t really improved much, which shouldn’t be too surprising given that—other than Rowdy Tellez—the Mariners didn’t add any notable bats to the lineup. In turn, they’re currently hitting .227 against left-handed pitching and have gone down via the K 80 times in 247 at-bats. That’s just about one strikeout per three turns at the plate.
Crochet might be feasting, and that could be a deciding factor in a total as high as 8. If he severely limits the M’s and goes deep into the ballgame, that means all we’ll need is some more of the typical satisfactory work from his counterpart, Bryan Woo.
Much has been made about the Mariners having the best pitching staff in all of baseball. After all, their starters produced a team 3.38 ERA a year ago to lead all of Major League Baseball—and that was while throwing more innings than anybody. Furthermore, Seattle starters churned out the most strikeouts of any American League rotation.
Woo is basically the club’s secret weapon. He was extremely underrated last season, only to unceremoniously be dubbed an All-Star snub despite holding a 1.77 ERA entering July of the campaign. He would go on to finish with a 2.89 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and .211 batting average against.
So, not a soul should be shocked that the Cal Poly product is out to an excellent beginning this year. Additionally, he’s going deeper into games. Woo has pitched into the seventh inning or deeper in all four of his starts, something he only did five times in his 22 outings a season ago.
The Red Sox always present a difficult challenge at the plate for any pitcher—especially at home—but I believe with Crochet pacing things, the rest will take care of itself. We just need Woo to continue doing exactly what he’s been doing, or even just manufacture something close to that.
Pick: Under 8 (-105, BetMGM)
2025 MLB Betting Record: 17-15-1, -0.69 unit
Over/Unders: 15-10-1
Props: 2-4
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Results: Rockies-Royals Under 9 (No Action), Andrew Heaney Live Over 18.5 Outs (loss)
Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated.
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