Facing Russia Threat and U.S. Pivot, Poland Prepares for War

EXPERT INTERVIEW — Other than Ukraine itself, few European countries have been as directly impacted by Russia’s 2022 invasion as Poland. From the beginning, Poland, which shares a roughly 340-mile-long border with Ukraine, has taken in far more refugees than any other nation; overall, nearly nine million Ukrainians have crossed into Poland, and three years into the war, roughly one million refugees remain. More recently, Poland has been among the many European countries buffeted by the U.S. shift to greater engagement with Russia, and its willingness to meet with Kremlin officials and adopt language and positions that had been anathema to the Biden Administration and its European allies. 

The practical implications for Poland have been profound: the government has pledged to boost military spending – despite the fact that it already spends more as a percentage of GDP than any NATO nation (Estonia and the U.S. rank second and third); recently, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk vowed to double the size of the military, including reservists; and he and other Polish officials have suggested that the country consider the positioning of nuclear weapons on Polish soil. Tusk said last month that the combination of a growing threat from Russia and “a profound change of American geopolitics” were forcing Poland’s hand.